Justas Šaltinis

Investments, private markets & returns

Investments, private markets & returns

  • Is AI Coming for Your Job?

    Is AI Coming for Your Job?

    Friday is a great day to check if AI is coming for your job. If you’re in construction, agriculture, or grounds maintenance – AI can barely figure out what you do, or how to replace you… Source: Anthropic

  • Three AI Scenarios, One Trend Line, and Zero Consensus

    Three AI Scenarios, One Trend Line, and Zero Consensus

    This one chart perfectly summarizes every AI discussion from the past few weeks. Three scenarios, one trend line, and zero consensus. Source: FT

  • Beware of Analysts’ Ratings

    Beware of Analysts’ Ratings

    Looking back at 5 years of analyst sentiment on Fiserv stock – BUY ratings dominated the timeline. If the investor decided to buy the stock during the most optimistic period, after the 2025 Q2 earnings reports, the loss would be staggering, ~55%. The long horizon would not have helped as well, even a December 2020…

  • Earnings are driving US equity returns this year

    Earnings are driving US equity returns this year

    Earnings are driving US equity returns this year Insightful chart from BlackRock that splits the total equity return into three components: earnings growth, multiples expansion/contraction, and dividends. Looking at the U.S. AI-linked indices, the majority of equity returns came from earnings growth, with Magnificent 7 even experiencing a multiples contraction. However, indices that excluded Mag7/Tech…

  • Most Shorted Stocks Are Outperforming US Equities

    Most Shorted Stocks Are Outperforming US Equities

    𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐎𝐞𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐒 𝐄𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 Interesting chart for Friday: being long US equity has delivered steady gains over the last 6 years; however, being long the most heavily shorted basket of 250 stocks (not an ETF, yet) would have outperformed the market by 3x. The most likely reason is short squeezes that are…